Counterpoint: Mini-LED in notebooks to slump by 75% by 2027

If Apple unveils its first MacBook with an OLED display on Wednesday as expected, the impact goes well beyond a single new laptop – it hits an entire display technology. Counterpoint Research expects shipments of Mini-LED notebook panels to fall 38 percent in 2026 and a further 60 percent in 2027. That would leave only around a quarter of the 2025 volume by 2027, a drop of roughly three quarters in just two years.

It is no coincidence that Apple plays the lead role here. The MacBook Pro has been one of the best-known Mini-LED notebooks since 2021, and Counterpoint explicitly names the expected switch in the next MacBook Pro generation as a driver. Demand for premium AI PCs is also expected to support OLED. For OLED notebook panels, the research firm forecasts growth of 50 percent in 2026 and another 24 percent in 2027.

The contrast with the rest of the market is striking. Notebook displays as a whole are expected to decline 3 percent in 2026, as expensive memory inflates bills of materials and dampens demand. The two premium technologies, OLED and Mini-LED, are expected to grow 11 percent combined – carried entirely by OLED. Through 2030, Counterpoint projects annual growth of 26 percent in OLED notebook panel shipments and 35 percent in revenue, which means the average panel is also getting more expensive.

Counterpoint cites the thinner form factor, image quality and falling costs as the reasons. Tandem OLED is set to improve brightness, efficiency and lifespan, while new manufacturing processes such as LG Display's FLiPP and Visionox's ViP should raise yields. Add more efficient blue emitters and larger Gen 8.7 production lines – all factors aimed primarily at narrowing the price gap to Mini-LED.

For buyers, this doesn't mean Mini-LED is finished. The panel in the current MacBook Pro 14 with M5 remains competitive years after its introduction. That Mini-LED isn't automatically good is shown by the Surface Laptop Ultra: its panel reaches 2,000 nits but lacks local dimming in our review and responds slowly. Without properly controlled dimming zones, little of the technology's advantage remains.

For Mini-LED panel makers, the forecast is bad news, as Apple is their most prominent customer in the notebook market. For buyers, the open question is how long Apple will keep the Mini-LED model alongside the OLED MacBook.